Trendwatching 5 Trends for 2019

Here we go. If you plan to make waves in 2019, then consider running with one (or more!) of these big five emerging consumer trends:

1. LEGISLATIVE BRANDS. 
Progressive consumers will welcome the ‘law of the brand’.

2. LAB RATS.
Why an extreme test and fix mindset is the future of wellness.

3. OPEN SOURCE SOLUTIONS.
A bold new frontier for sustainability.

4. SUPERHUMAN RESOURCES.
It’s time for our emerging AI overlords to play fair.

5. FANTASY IRL. 
Imagined and real worlds collide in the name of play.

Regular readers can dive straight in. New readers, here’s the deal. The brands and organizations living these trends are already setting consumer expectations. You can too. As you read this report, keep asking yourself: how will these trends shape the expectations of our customers? What opportunities will the new behaviors they reflect present to our organization?

Read. Share. Discuss. But then far more importantly, do something with these trends! Good luck!

upcoming webinar

Deep-dive into 5 Trends for 2019 with Global Head of Trends & Insights, David Mattin on Wednesday, 28th November.  Register NOW.

1. LEGISLATIVE BRANDS

Progressive consumers will welcome the ‘law of the brand’.

A painful dichotomy is opening up. On one hand, every startup or product that delivers a positive impact drives customers’ aspirations for sustainable and ethical consumerism ever higher. At the same time, traditional governmental and bureaucratic institutions are increasingly either unwilling or unable to meet many of people’s basic expectations. This has left people clamoring for strong institutions to resolve this tension and deliver positive outcomes.

Here isn’t the place to comment on the political populism that has swept the world over the past few years (although we still firmly believe everything we wrote two years ago in TRUTHFUL CONSUMERISM, that the only possible route to long-term success is an economy and society that promotes transparency, aspiration, positive impact, tolerance and empowerment).

Instead, let’s dive into a much less well-known but just as powerful emerging consumer trend:

In 2019, frustrated consumers will welcome LEGISLATIVE BRANDS: corporate interests using their significant power to call for, promote, and even impose laws that drive constructive change and make the world a better place.

This is an undeniably huge shift. A generation ago, brand lobbying was synonymous with bad outcomes (think big tobacco and big oil). Now, thanks to countless positive examples of brand activism, 86% of consumers want brands to take a stand on social issues (Shelton Group, June 2018).

But LEGISLATIVE BRANDS is more than ‘just’ brand activism. Yes if you get brand activism right, it’s still a powerful marketing strategy. Nike’s provocative Colin Kaepernick campaign earned the brand more media attention than almost any other campaign during 2018.

But, as the examples below show, the most progressive brands are looking to do more than just raise awareness. They are looking to influence – and even change – the rules of the game for the better. And where they lead, customer expectations will follow.

Examples

• patagonia — Anyone watching trends will be familiar with Patagonia’s boundary-pushing environmental initiatives. But over the last 12 months, Patagonia’s initiatives have moved beyond consumer-facing marketing campaigns and become more formal and legal: last December the company sued the US federal government over planned cuts to Bear Ears National Monument; in November 2018 it endorsed political candidates in Nevada and Montana for the first time ever.

• beautycounter — Beautycounter is a US-based direct sales skincare and cosmetic brand with a network of 30,000 consultants. In March 2018, 100 Beautycounter consultants went to Washington D.C. to lobby members of Congress about the Personal Care Products Safety Act: a bipartisan bill that aims to give the FDA authority to regulate cosmetics ingredients (the bill is currently still under review). Beautycounter offered the all-expenses paid trip to Washington to the top two salespeople in each state, with attendees receiving training on effective lobbying strategies. The brand also released a new lip color, Beautycounter Red, to coincide with the day of lobbying.

• ceramiracle — Ceramiracle created a novel workaround to avoid China’s strict animal testing laws. Shoppers at the cruelty-free US beauty brand’s Chinese popups had to purchase items by scanning an in-store QR code which took them to the brand’s WeChat store. This is because local regulations require all beauty products sold in China to potentially be be tested on animals, if requested by the authorities. Instead, Ceramiracle ships its products to customers from a warehouse in a free-trade zone in Eastern China, where goods can be despatched without intervention from customs.

• microsoft — August 2018 saw Microsoft announce that all suppliers will be required to provide their employees with paid parental leave. Expanding on a 2015 initiative to only work with companies offering paid time off, Microsoft’s suppliers will be required to grant employees at least 12 weeks of paid parental leave, after they give birth to or adopt a child. The company cited Washington state’s recently-announced parental leave policies, as well as increased morale and productivity among both men and women, as inspiring the requirement.

YOUR RESPONSE?

This is a trend that will likely make you, or many in your organization, uncomfortable. It should! Actively designing, lobbying for, or imposing laws and regulations is very different to creating a marketing campaign. It means authentic commitment to the common good. It incurs costs. It opens you up to criticism. It requires ongoing monitoring to ensure regulations are being adhered to. That’s the whole point.

Many consumers are cynical of businesses’ cause marketing efforts. Even those that aren’t seen as ‘purpose washing’ risk being challenged on the actual impact of their campaigns. Just one example from the frontlines of the US culture war: recent years have seen many brands featuring transgender models in their marketing. But these campaigns will ring hollow if the Trump administration succeeds in its reported plans to legally define gender as fixed at birth.

If however you are committed enough to embrace the LEGISLATIVE BRANDS trend, then here are a few thoughts to kickstart your discussion:

First, if you want to apply this trend then know that it’s 99% about listening. Listen to a diversity of voices – inside and outside your organization – and hear what they’re saying about what needs to change. Then act. If you try to decide What’s Best for Everyone in a unilateral way, you’ll rightly face criticism.

Are there any laws that are simply antithetical to your brand values and positioning? Are you bold enough to ‘break’ them? Or at least find a loophole as Ceramiracle did with its innovative China distribution strategy.

In an era of GLASS BOX BRANDS, your internal culture is your most powerful external marketing asset. Could you empower your staff to lobby for new –and better!– laws, as BeautyCounter did? Or, could you impose new ‘laws’ on your staff? WeWork recently banned its employees from expensing meat. You could think even bigger: Microsoft’s initiative reaches beyond its own employees, to its suppliers.

Still need to convince people in your team that is where things are headed? Use Patagonia’s involvement to win them over! After all, Patagonia is the poster child of brand activism. It has followed up its famous ‘Don’t Buy This Jacket’ 2011 Black Friday campaign with all manner of tangible activist environmental initiatives. Its move into more formal legal and political action is a powerful signal that will redefine what customers expect of all brands in this space in 2019.

2. LAB RATS

Why an extreme test and fix mindset is the future of wellness.

Silicon Valley took a beating in 2018. But there’s one area where its influence continues to grow, and indeed will be positively welcomed. Among wellness-seekers (and yes, that’s almost all of us), a new mindset, is taking hold when it comes to one’s health, wellness and lifestyle.

In 2019, LAB RATS will see human wellness and lifestyle as an engineering problem to be solved. This outlook, with its origins in the Valley, will see rising numbers enthusiastically apply a test and fix approach to optimizing their health and lifestyle outcomes.

This trend has been building for a while. A host of apps and devices – think Fitbit, Strava, MyFitnessPal, Apple Health and more – have made millions increasingly aware of their health metrics and stoked the desire to be in control. But here are two reasons why 2019 will be the tipping point for LAB RATS.

First, the explosion in direct-to-consumer startups that leverage ‘evidence-meets-marketing’ social content means that in 2019 curious consumers can find – and easily purchase! – even the most niche and experimental solutions for any micro-health need.

Second, continual and dramatic falls in the cost of ‘hard’ science (DNA sequencing today; Crispr tomorrow) means that science fiction-level technologies are now within reach of boundary-pushing consumers. Yes, most consumers won’t personally have regular DNA-based wellness experiences in 2019. But as with the Quantified Self movement a decade ago, awareness of – and demand for – convenient and affordable hyper-personalized wellness is growing, fast.

Here’s how brands across multiple sectors are catering to LAB RATS.

Featured innovations

• nestlé — Launched in Japan in May 2018, the Nestlé Wellness Ambassador is a service providing customers with personalized nutritional advice based on their dietary habits, DNA, and blood test results. Users upload pictures of the food they eat via the Line messaging app. Meanwhile at-home DNA and blood tests assess their vulnerability to common diseases such as high blood pressure and diabetes. The service then provides personalized dietary advice, as well as specially formulated vitamin supplements. The program costs around USD 600 a year.

• timeshifter — Released in July 2018, Timeshifter is an app providing personalized plans to help people minimize the effects of jet lag. The app operates via an algorithm, used by NASA astronauts, that takes users’ ages, sleep habits, flight schedules, and whether they consume caffeine into account. Timeshifter then sends advice via push notifications. An individual trip costs USD 9.99, while a yearly subscription is USD 24.99.

• kolibri — In July 2018 British beverage brand Kolibri partnered with glass packaging manufacturer Beatson Clark to create bottles that let consumers control sugar levels. The caps contain an agave-based syrup that customers can add to their taste, or omit altogether if they prefer a sugar-free beverage. Kolibri products are priced from GBP 6.

• pax — US-based vaporizer company Pax introduced its ‘session control’ feature for its Pax Era cannabis vape in Q2 2018. The feature ensures that smokers do not consume more cannabis than they intend to. Via the app, users pick from one of four dose sizes: micro, small, medium or large. The device monitors the user’s consumption, and when the dose is reached, vapor stops flowing and the Pax Era locks for 30 seconds (preventing users from inhaling). The Pax Era retails for USD 29.99.

YOUR RESPONSE

If you work in the wellness, beauty or food and beverage sectors then your head is probably already buzzing with opportunities.

Of course, there are many ways to approach this. Kolibri ripped up the rule book on packaged beverages and developed a bottle format that gives customers greater control. Pax’s ‘session control’ feature brings data-driven precision to a traditionally ad hoc habit. Nestlé’s Wellness Ambassador program brings DNA science to everyday diet and lifestyle.

But you can still tap into this trend even if you’re not in those sectors, or if you don’t sell consumable products. Think expansively about the personalized wellness-related lifestyle services you could offer? We can easily imagine travelers welcoming an airline or hotel chain offering them Timeshifter’s jetlag-beating app.

Indeed, no sector is off-limits when it comes to expectations around constant optimization, driven by the mainstreaming of the engineering mindset. Take insurance. Trov, an on-demand insurance startup that expanded to the US in July 2018. It offers customers item-by-item coverage (more control!), while its Smart Premium automatically responds to changes in items’ value (measure and optimize!). Or furniture. Tom Dixon’s IKEA collaboration encourages a test and fix approach via user ‘hacks’ and customization.

Whichever sector you’re in, focus on empowering your customers to understand, control, test and fix every aspect of their experience and you’ll speak to the new expectations at the heart of the LAB RATS trend.

3. OPEN SOURCE SOLUTIONS

A bold new frontier for sustainability.

You’re undoubtedly working to tick the positive impact box. Perhaps you have a related KPI or two. But are you really making a difference? A lasting, meaningful difference that will be felt by future generations? Cynical consumers don’t think so either.

That’s why in 2019, the boldest and most inspiring organizations will embrace OPEN SOURCE SOLUTIONS: sharing and even giving away their innovative solutions to our toughest shared problems.    

What’s bringing this trend to the top of the sustainable and ethical business agenda?

First, it’s now simply assumed your organization is working to reduce its impact. For example, the Ellen MacArthur Foundation announced in October 2018 that over 250 organizations, including PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, Unilever and H&M, had signed its pledge to eliminate single-use non-recycled plastics by 2025. This is good news, of course. But these important and ambitious efforts have become background noise to many consumers. Fair? No, but it’s the truth. Organizations that wish to differentiate themselves – to set expectations – must do even more.

Combine this with the fact that while mega-brands keep getting bigger, they are often still tiny players in the epic arena that is modern consumerism. One telling example: McDonald’s and Starbucks with their global footprints still only distribute 4% of the estimated 600 billion cups the world uses each year. The takeaway here? Even global mega-brands can’t solve our toughest shared problems alone. But one way they can make a transformative difference? Leverage their resources to create powerful new solutions – and then share those solutions with the world.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the most exciting frontier in sustainability, where pioneering brands are creating – and then sharing – OPEN SOURCE SOLUTIONS:

Featured innovations

• hp, ikea & nextwave — In October 2018 it was announced that HP and IKEA had joined NextWave Plastics, a coalition to reduce ocean-bound plastics. Both HP and IKEA already have numerous initiatives focused on reducing their plastic consumption. By joining NextWave Plastics the brands pledge to share their learnings and technologies in ‘a collaborative, open-sourced and transparent fashion to create the first global network of ocean-bound plastics supply chains’. NextWave plastics was founded by Dell Technologies and Lonely Whale in 2017 and now includes 10 companies including General Motors and Herman Miller.

• allbirds & braskem — After three years of development, US shoe brand Allbirds debuted its Sugar Zeffer flip-flops, which use the first sustainable version of EVA foam. The typical EVA foam used in shoes is produced using fossil fuels, while Allbirds’ SweetFoam is made from sugarcane. SweetFoam has a molecular structure that is identical to EVA foam and feels the same way on the foot. Allbirds and its partner petrochemical company Braskem has also made the formula for the material open-source, meaning that any company – in the footwear industry and beyond – has access to it. The Sugar Zeffer flip-flops retail for USD 35.

• uber, lyft & ford — In September 2018, it was announced that Ford, Uber and Lyft were joining SharedStreets, a public-private data platform designed to help reduce urban transportation issues. The platform is funded by Bloomberg Philanthropies will operate in over 30 global cities, including Paris, Melbourne and Washington DC. The platform aims to create shared, machine-readable standards for data such as curb usage and traffic speeds, enabling cities to make better investment and management decisions.

• starbucks — In May 2018 Starbucks closed all its 8,000 stores across the US to train its staff in identifying racial bias. The training was triggered by a widely publicized incident in which two African-American customers waiting for a meeting were arrested after an employee called the police. Starbucks then published its training program and all supporting content, making it freely available to other organizations that want to raise internal awareness of racial bias.

YOUR RESPONSE?

This is one of the biggest and most impactful trends we’ve ever published! It should challenge and excite you in equal measure. But let’s take a moment to note that while the innovations above might be new,  the underlying thinking isn’t. In 1959, Volvo invented the three-point seat belt. Next, they famously made the patent available to everyone in the interests of public safety. It’s estimated that since then the invention has saved over 1 million lives. The brand still (rightly!) celebrates this decision. What could you do in 2019 that you can still talk about in 60 years time?!

Feeling inspired by OPEN SOURCE SOLUTIONS? Here are a couple of thoughts to get you started:

Don’t wait until you’ve got a solution before you start collaborating and sharing. After all, it’s unlikely you’ll be able to solve huge industry-wide issues on your own. NextWave is a collaboration of ten companies from different sectors, all focused on the issue of ocean-bound plastics. Fierce ride-hailing competitors Uber and Lyft are working together (!) with Ford and SharedStreets, a data platform to solve urban congestion. AllBirds tapped petrochemical company Braskem for its SweetFoam soles. Who’s your perfect partner?

Yes, sustainability is an obvious target. But don’t limit yourself to eco-issues. Starbucks’ open sourcing of its racial bias training shows there are other socio-cultural issues where you can help contribute to a better future (even if this wasn’t exactly a planned move).

But the first questions to ask are radically simple ones: where are we making a positive impact? Could we have an exponentially bigger impact if we shared what we’re doing? What’s stopping us?

On that final question: don’t hide behind outdated notions of ‘competitive advantage’. The long-term benefits you’ll get from being seen as a leader will far outweigh any short-term benefits from a specific material or process. Leave a legacy!

4. SUPERHUMAN RESOURCES

It’s time for our emerging AI overlords to play fair.

The previously mentioned techlash of 2018 has many parts. Some have been outraged at where their data ends up. Others resent the negative social impacts that the tech giants have fueled. Others still are frustrated at the mismatch between what tech promises and what it delivers.

Here we’ll look at one key pain point which, like most pain points, also contains an epic opportunity for those organizations that are able to resolve it.

In 2019, rising numbers of consumers will demand SUPERHUMAN RESOURCES: ethical AI and algorithms that deliver fair and unbiased decisions.

Why is this the key technology challenge for 2019? Recent years have seen rising awareness of both how much of our lives are shaped by decisions made by AI and algorithms, but also just how fallible and biased decisions made by those algorithms can be. The news keeps coming, and it isn’t pretty: take evidence of facial recognition systems being significantly more reliable on white male faces (what a surprise 😬), or worse disproportionately flagging black politicians as criminals. Or Amazon discontinuing its algorithmically-fueled hiring tool, which turned out to be biased against women.

The result? A deep shift in attitudes to technology. In a survey of 27,000 consumers in eight markets, 97% of consumers now expect brands to use technology ethically. Hardly surprising. More interestingly, 94% now say if not then governments should step in. That’s a profound change from the era when tech companies could do no wrong…

Let’s take a look at organizations at the leading edge of this trend:

Example

• facebook — At its May 2018 F8 developer conference Facebook announced a tool called Fairness Flow, intended to help identify biases in the platform’s algorithms. The tool was first targeted at the platform’s jobs algorithm, where it sought to identify gender and age-based bias. Fairness Flow is now available to any Facebook engineer to evaluate an algorithm for bias. In September the American Civil Liberties Union filed a gender discrimination lawsuit against Facebook and ten of its advertisers, citing a tool that allows advertisers to target job ads solely at men.

• ibm — September 2018 saw IBM announce a suite of tools to tackle bias and increase transparency in AIservices. The package enables users to check whether certain individuals or groups are subject to bias, tools to help developers identify what might be causing biased outcomes, and suggestions on how to correct them. The tools can be used on IBM’s Watson platform, as well as with third party frameworks such as Tensorflow and AzureML.

• crisis text line — Texas-based nonprofit Crisis Text Line has trained over 12,000 counselors who have handled over 62 million messages. In April 2018, it spun out Loris.ai a commercial platform designed to help educate managers in how to handle challenging conversations. The company hopes to apply its learnings to corporate situations, such as performance, upset customers and firings and layoffs.

• forbes brasil — Forbes Brasil created a composite ‘person’ based on multiple white-collar criminals to draw attention to corruption issues in the country. Named Ric Brasil, the AI-created figure was allotted the number eight slot in the magazine’s annual billionaire list, based on the collective USD 61 billion annual cost of corruption in the country. Created by tech companies Nexo and Notan for the magazine’s April 2018 edition, Ric Brasil’s features emerged by combining the profiles of corrupt individuals named in the media, investigations and books.

YOUR RESPONSE?

Step one when it comes to applying this trend? Ensure your existing AIs and algorithms are ethical and unbiased. When consumers see tech giants such as Facebook and IBM making changes to do just that, what changes will they start to expect from you?

But if you’re not a tech giant, don’t think this trend is out of reach. Perhaps you could partner with an AI startup to use data to shine a powerful light on an important issue, as Forbes Brasil did? Or even better, perhaps you have a unique dataset that can help others deliver better outcomes. Nonprofit Crisis Text Line tapped its own unique dataset to create a new chatbot that helps managers learn to have difficult conversations.

But wherever you start to apply SUPERHUMAN RESOURCES, there’s one challenging truth at the heart of this trend. You know that customers expect the people inside your organization – your human resources – to be fair and ethical. But when a human staff member makes a bad decision, most customers will be willing to view this as an isolated mistake. They won’t be so forgiving if they discover that your algorithms and AIs are structurally biased or unethical.

In 2019 you have a choice: make your digital outputs truly superhuman (i.e. flawless); or make them a little more transparent, a little slower, indeed a little more human.

5. FANTASY IRL

Imagined and real worlds collide in the name of play.

Humans have always sought out escapism. From telling stories around the campfire, to cheering on a sports team, to booking last minute getaways. Increasingly societal polarization, inequality and political turbulence are prompting many to seek out a break from the ‘real world’ with greater urgency. See the near-tripling of Google searches related to ‘anxiety‘ in the last ten years.

Alongside a growing desire to get away from it all, consumers have more channels with which to escape than ever before. Media consumption continues to grow to almost insane levels: American adults spend more than 11 hours per day (!) interacting with media. At the same time, media itself is becoming ever-richer and more immersive: 80 million Americans use augmented reality every day.

Yes, 24/7 connectivity and digital experiences that blur the boundaries of the real and virtual are not ‘new’ trends, but in 2019 their convergence will reach deeper than ever before into culture. Your customer is now a veritable escape artist, able to plug into a universe of their choosing – from the battle royales of Fortnite, to their fantasy sports league – at any moment. At home, stuck in traffic, bored in a meeting…the scope to imagine, escape, explore, create and connect is unlimited.

In 2019, fanciful worlds will permeate the real world as never before. As consumers seek out FANTASY IRL and play on the blurring boundaries between real and imagined, smart brands will join in the fun!

Examples

• louvre — The Louvre in Paris began offering Jay-Z and Beyoncé at the Louvre, a self-guided tour, in July 2018. The art museum’s tour stops at each of the artworks featured in the couple’s music video for APES**T, which was filmed at the museum and released in June 2018. The 17-stop tour explains the history behind each artwork, but not specifically why Jay-Z and Beyoncé displayed them in the clip.

  • tiffany & co and tiong bahru bakery — August 2018 saw jewelry brand Tiffany & Co. partner with Tiong Bahru Bakery to make Breakfast at Tiffany’s a reality. The Singapore-based bakery’s flagship was painted in Tiffany’s signature eggshell blue, with the surrounding area dressed up to look like a New York sidewalk. Of course, with it being 2018, visitors were invited to share their #tiffanyxtbb experiences on social media.

  • blizzard — In July 2018 video game producer Blizzarddonated USD 12.7 million USD to the Breast Cancer Research Foundation (BCRF) after a successful two-week charity campaign. Gamers could purchase a special USD 15 pink skin for the Mercy character inside the popular online shooter game Overwatch. Many players also held special charity livestreams where viewers’ tips would go to the BCRF. The donation was the largest corporate donation in the BCRF’s history.

  • celebrity cruises — Launched in October 2018, Celebrity Edge, the latest cruise ship from Celebrity Cruises includes Le Petit Chef, a restaurant experience with a ‘digital chef’. Using ceiling-mounted projectors, an animated chef appears beside diners’ plates to create the dish virtually. For example, for the dessert course the chef creates a giant snowball on the table, before heaving it onto the plate. Nuts are then ‘fired’ from a cannon as a garnish. Once the animation is complete, waiters bring out the real-world plated dishes.

  YOUR RESPONSE?

  You’d be hard-pressed to name any business more proven in building transmedia fictional universes that capture the imagination of tens of millions of consumers, than Blizzard. And in breaking the record for the single largest donation made by a corporation to the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, they proved the life-changing impact these universes (and their participants) can have in the real world.

  Don’t fret. You needn’t be a game studio with millions at your disposal to play within this trend. Could there be a more ‘now’ example of FANTASY IRL than jeweler Tiffany & Co. leveraging a much-loved cultural artifact and bringing it into the real world for the experience-hungry Insta-generation? Going the other way, see how the Louvre made itself relevant to a new generation by harnessing the good old-fashioned audio guide to layer Beyoncé and Jay-Z’s creative output onto the gallery. Not only does this give fans a new chance to connect with their favorite superstars, but it provides a little educational benefit, too!

  One final thought. Yes, some instances of this trend might feel a little gimmicky. Do diners need to see a virtual chef prepare their food? Does this mean the search for natural and authentic experiences is over? No, of course not! Not all trends apply to everyone, all of the time! But in these turbulent times, perhaps your audience might welcome a little light escapism?

  Whichever angle you take on FANTASY IRL, in 2019 consumers will weave in and out of the real world in an ever-growing number of fantastical ways! The question is, will you keep up?

  THE BIGGER PICTURE

  The 5 trends featured here are important, but they represent just a small fraction of the consumer landscape.

  Clients of our Premium Service have an instant global Trend Department at their fingertips. They have access to our entire Trend Framework, built around the 16 mega-trends that define modern consumerism. Beneath these sit 120+ actionable trends (the trends featured here, along with a host of others we continue to track), all illustrated with 19,000+ hand-curated, best practice innovations. If you’re serious about trends, it’s a no-brainer.

  OVER TO YOU

  As always, we wrap up these annual Trend Briefings with a call to action…

  While it‘s our job just to watch trends, ambitious business professionals should read this Briefing with only one thing in mind: how to apply these trends to create compelling new innovations that will delight your customers (and win new ones!).

  If you want some tips on how to do that, then our Consumer Trend Canvascan help. It’s an easy-to-follow, one-page guide to analyzing and then applying a trend.

  So, what are you waiting for? Time to make 2019 your best year yet!

  Cheers! Proost! 干杯! Salud! Skål! 건배! Santé! Prost! Şerefe! Mabuhay! Saúde! Chok dee!

  about the author:

  

  David Mattin

  David Mattin is Global Head of Trends and Insights at TrendWatching. A sought-after keynote speaker and widely published journalist, he speaks regularly at high-profile conferences around the world, including The Next Web 2018, the 15 Seconds Festival and NEXT Conference.

   Full bio

  it takes a team

  This Trend Briefing has many hands on it. A huge thanks to the team that pulled this together with such positivity and enthusiasm, especially: Vicky Kim and Nikki Ritmeijer (for design!), and also Maxwell Luthy, Vicki Loomes, Henry Mason, Alida Urban, Harry Metzger, Harvey Gomez, Jareth Ashbrook, Jonathan Herbst and Lisa Feierstein. THANK YOU!

Tailor-made tech tackles loneliness (Trend Watching)

Norway-based No Isolation is a technology company aimed at combating loneliness. Its first two devices are aimed at seniors and children with long-term illness. AV1, its portable telepresence robot, is designed to be used in classrooms by children who can’t attend in person. It has also been used as a virtual mascot in a soccer game in the English Premier League. KOMP, its one button communications device enables family members to share messages, photos and video calls with elderly relatives. Three insights to consider here: – We know it’s tempting to just focus your digital innovations on the 2.5 billion global smartphone users. And of course, tailoring your smartphone apps to the needs of specific demographics will still be warmly welcomed. Witness Taobao’s senior-focused app. However, this example should remind you that there are still many demographics which are underserved by smartphones. Could you create new products and services that tailored for their needs? – Thankfully, awareness around the full spectrum of mental health and wellbeing continues to grow. We recently featured Costa’s very low-tech, low budget table sign initiative to combat loneliness. Of course, this topic won’t be relevant to every organization, but what you can ask yourself is: what lifestyle pain points are our customers facing? And how might we help alleviate them? – Trends are all about new ways to serve basic human needs, here the need for human connection. Telepresence robots might not be many classrooms today, but No Isolation are tackling a huge important issue for those children. Which basic human need can you use technology to ‘solve’ in a novel way?

Six trends defining the future of BETTERMENT in 2016 and beyond.

Trendwatching

1. AMBIENT WELLNESS
Health boosting features – embedded into the environment.

2. CALIBRATED HEALTH
Get ready for the age of individualization.

3. VIRTUAL ACTUALIZATION
Virtual realities, real (physical, cognitive, emotional) improvements.

4. IMPACT INDICATORS
Instant, useful real-time feedback on health and wellness impacts.

5. DISTRIBUTED DIAGNOSIS
New, innovative and seamless ways to access health services.

6. POST-DEMOGRAPHIC BETTERMENT
Throw out old thinking and embrace POST-DEMOGRAPHIC diversity!

TRENDWATCHING: 5 TRENDS FOR 2016 is here!

5 TRENDS FOR 2016 are different.

• 
  

  STATUS
  TESTS

• 
  

  CONTEXTUAL OMNIPRESENCE

• 
  

  INSIDER
  TRADING

• 
  

  BENEFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

• 
  

  PERSPECTIVE
  SHIFTS

First, they don’t cover the big economic, social and technological trends that are ahead. After all, The Economist is already a thing.

Instead, we’re all about consumer trends. Regular readers will know that trends emerge as innovators address consumers’ basic needs and wants in novel ways.

As trend watchers, that’s why we look for clusters of innovations which are defining (and redefining) customer expectations. These innovations – and the trends they represent – show what consumers will want next, and present you with actionable innovation opportunities in 2016.

But readers who are serious about understanding the direction of consumerism across multiple dimensions will have already spotted that these trends don’t sit in splendid isolation. They are a handful of near-future fragments of the Bigger Picture – more on how to handle that below. But each one is also a killer opportunity to take to your team right now.

Read, think, argue. Then get going, and make a start on new products, services and campaigns that consumers will love in 2016!

STATUS TESTS

PARENT MEGA-TREND

STATUS SEEKERS

Only the worthy will be served.

Consider the endless search for status, and you’re on the path that leads to the heart of consumer behavior. Because in affluent consumer societies, status is the No.1 motivator driving much of what people do (whether they acknowledge it or not 😉

So what’s next for status? In 2016, consumers will embrace a new twist on a traditional form of cachet: exclusivity. That means STATUS TESTS that force them to actively prove their worth to the brands they want to buy from. Yep, consumers proving themselves to brands. 

We all know that many have shifted their status fixation away from ownership and towards experiences (so far, so 1998…). But when ice-cream can be delivered on demand by a taxi company, it’s clear that the doors to the experience economy have been flung wide open. And there’s little status in anything that comes easily.

Meanwhile, experienced and savvy consumers have become more comfortable with the idea of brand-led demands that ultimately serve customers’ best interests. And STATUS TESTS do just that, by allowing consumers the chance to prove skills, creativity, good taste, [insert status marker of choice here]. And, what’s more, to join a gated community of others who’ve done the same.

Ready to devise your own STATUS TEST? See how these brands did it.

REAL WORLD EXAMPLES OF STATUS TESTS

• Netflix

  One-touch ‘Netflix and chill’ button has to be made by user

  The more stringent the TEST, the greater the STATUS. And difficult tests are a great way to bring a likeminded community together, around your brand. In September 2015, Netflix unveiled The Switch, a button that automatically switches on the TV, launches Netflix,
 silences the phones, dims the lights and can even order takeout! The button was debuted at the NYC Maker Faire, and Netflix released a step-by-step online tutorial showing people how to make 
their own, and a list of all the kit needed. Netflix recommended those hoping to make the button have ‘a solid understanding of electronics and programming’. The brand also encouraged makers to share their own product hacks and ideas online.

• Lee Jeans

  WeChat users who brave the cold and explore Chinese cities earn Warmth Index points

  Running a STATUS TEST can mean asking customers to undergo a trial to prove their commitment. In October 2015, Lee Jeans launched a campaign across 32 cities in China to promote a range of heat-retaining denim. Consumers were encouraged to get outside (even in the cold) and explore their cities while tracking their movements with the Warmth Tracker WeChat app. Warmth Index points were accumulated when users scanned QR codes at scattered locations. By collecting points, users could earn Magma Fusion denim products and access to exclusive events.

• 1930

  Single Tinder user turns on old-school charm to access speakeasy bar

  Exclusive access goes hand-in-hand with high-status physical spaces. One smart STATUS TEST? Find new, digital takes on that exclusivity. Milan’s iconic speakeasy bar 1930 is typically only open to a select few who know who to ask. In May 2015, the bar turned to Tinder to recreate its strict door policy in the digital world. 1930 set up a Tinder profile of a girl from 1930, asking potential entrants to ‘court me like they used to in the old days’. The profile had 4,000 matches in the first week, with applicants asked 
to ‘act like gentlemen’ and pick up digital handkerchiefs. In what it described as the lowest conversion ever,
 the bar eventually let one winner enter its premises.

Next

Three things to consider when you roll out your STATUS TEST in 2016:

Be fearless. Yes, asking customers to prove themselves to you is counter-intuitive. But the more stringent the test, the greater the status hit.

Think beyond traditional credentials and markers of brand loyalty. Who do your customers aspire to be? How can you set a STATUS TEST that lets them prove something meaningful?

For rising numbers, crowdfunding has normalized a mode of consumerism where people are not mere consumers, but a community of evangelists. Once you’ve set a STATUS TEST, those who pass are a ready-made, high-status community of like-minded (or like-skilled) peers. Foster it!

CONTEXTUAL OMNIPRESENCE

PARENT MEGA-TREND

HELPFULL

Forget omnichannel.
Get ready for new channels and new contexts.

In 2016, you could be forgiven for thinking that a brand must be everywhere at once. After all, expectations around customer service now defy the laws of physics. Miss a customer’s moment of need, and you might not get another chance.

That’s why you’ve probably sat through multiple brainstorms around your (or your client’s) omnichannel strategy debating “how will we use [insert latest hot new ephemeral geo-fenced live-streaming video social platform]?”

In the coming 12 months, average brands will keep pursuing that strategy. But these discussions are like having an ‘Internet of Things strategy’. They focus on the how rather than the why. They focus on technology possibilities, rather than putting customers’ needs and wants first.

Meanwhile, smart brands will focus on answering a more meaningful equation: innovative channels + nuanced contexts = right place + right time.

REAL WORLD EXAMPLES OF CONTEXTUAL OMNIPRESENCE

• Domino’s

  Taking pizza orders in novel, ultra-convenient ways

  When you consider an omnichannel strategy, you can learn a lot from Domino’s highly-regarded Pizza AnyWare initiative.

  The pizza chain has continuously expanded the variety of ways that impatient and hungry pizza-lovers can place their orders. Customers can voice order using the Siri-like app Dom, by tweeting or texting the pizza emoji, and while driving home in a compatible Ford. After ordering, they can track their pizza’s arrival time via the Domino’s smartwatch app.

• Hotel Banks & Pimkie

  Guests can choose curated items from in-room “Mini Fashion Bar”

  2015 saw new channels appear everywhere. Washing machines and other domestic appliances became retail channels via Amazon’s Dash Buttons. One other innovative new approach to distribution:

  May 2015 saw Antwerp’s Hotel Banks unveil the Mini Fashion Bar: an initiative created in partnership with French fashion brand Pimkie. Rooms were stocked with a range of apparel and accessories, chosen according to the weather and activities in the local area. Guests could use clothes from the fashion bar and purchase items upon checkout. A dedicated fashion concierge could be contacted for additional sizes or different garments.

• Telefónica Research

  Bored mobile users engaged with timely content notifications

  New contexts mean new opportunities. Just look at how knowing people’s locations has unlocked and transformed mobile commerce. Now, even newer and more sophisticated contexts are just around the corner. ‘Attention’ is just one example:

  In September 2015, Barcelona-based Telefónica Research published a report showing researchers are able to tell from a smartphone user’s mobile activity whether the user is bored with an 83% accuracy rate. Participants were then sent notifications recommending content on Buzzfeed. Those users that had been identified as being in a ‘bored’ state were more likely to read the suggested content (unsurprisingly!).

Next

So, the next time someone suggests addressing your omnichannel strategy, use this trend to have a more productive conversation with them (we’ll leave it to you to decide if you want to tell them where they’re going wrong first 😉

Start by asking why customers might embrace you using a channel. Next, challenge whether existing channels really satisfy the deep needs and wants of your customers. Could you create any new ones? Finally, imagine entirely new contexts you could leverage (perhaps even those that customers aren’t yet consciously aware of).

Bring all those together and deliver CONTEXTUAL OMNIPRESENCE:being in the right place at the right time.

INSIDER TRADING

PARENT MEGA-TREND

BETTER BUSINESS

Internal culture.
Your next marketing initiative?

The epic quest for a more sustainable and ethical consumerism continues unabated. Yet consumers were (again) left sorely wanting in 2015: from Volkswagen’s emissions to FIFA’s corruption to Nestlé’s slave labor in Thailand to Yum! Brands’ tainted meat in China. Amid all this, it’s hard for brands to know where to turn.

One suggestion for 2016: turn inwards, and start by ensuring your internal culture is something to flaunt, rather than hide.

Why now? Consumers have long been concerned about purchasing goods produced by vulnerable workers in developing countries. Now, rising inequality and growing job insecurity in affluent countries means their empathy is expanding to white-collar workers, too. Who knew people cared so much about Amazon’s highly-paid developers, marketers and middle managers featured in the NYT’s controversial exposé?

So, take inspiration from the examples below, and in doing so allow customers to celebrate supporting your brand, as you support those who work for you.

REAL WORLD EXAMPLES OF INSIDER TRADING

• Intel

  CEO announces USD 300 million diversity fund

  During his keynote at the 2015 Consumer Electronics Show, Intel CEO Brian Krzanich announced plans to greatly increase the diversity of the Intel workforce. Citing the pervasive lack of diversity in the tech industry, Krzanich said he wanted Intel to lead by example and pledged USD 300 million ensure its workforce would reach full representation of women and minorities by 2020.

• GrabTaxi

  Taxi app launches worker welfare fund for drivers in Thailand

  While Uber continues to trigger social concerns and face legal challenges with regards to its treatment of ‘workers’, GrabTaxi (a taxi booking app which operates across South East Asia) expanded its GrabLife driver welfare program to Thailand in May 2015, after launching a similar fund in Singapore. The initiative sees the company deposit 14% of the THB 7 (USD 0.21) journey fee it receives into the GrabLife fund. Drivers who meet the quality and loyalty criteria are then eligible for life insurance, income protection and crisis support. Further benefits include English language lessons and educational scholarships.

• REI

  #OptOutside campaign closes stores and pays employees to take Black Friday off

  In October 2015, REI announced that all of its 143 stores would be closed on Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving), to allow staff and shoppers to spend the day outside. The outdoor apparel retailer’s 1,200 employees were still paid for a day’s work, and both staff and shoppers were invited to share their shopping-free time using the hashtag #OptOutside on social media. A co-op with more that 5.5 million members, REI’s profits topped USD 2 billion in 2014, with Black Friday in the top 10 of the retailer’s highest-grossing sales days.

• Flipkart

  Indian ecommerce giant offers employees adoption allowance

  July 2015 saw Flipkart unveil a policy giving staff members adopting children a one-off allowance of INR 50,000 (USD 787). Employees of the Indian online retailer (often referred to as the ‘Amazon of India’) can use the fee towards any expenses occurring during the adoption process, such as legal or agency costs. According to government guidelines, the cost of the entire adoption process is RS 46,000.

Next

Asking hard questions about your internal culture isn’t easy. For those needing a steer on which questions to ask, start by addressing common pain points in your industry:

REI used the retail industry’s focus on Black Friday to make a compelling point about its brand values. Intel is focusing on diversity, a big issue in the tech industry. GrabTaxi is differentiating itself by addressing drivers’ concerns about working in the gig economy.

But whichever questions you ask, consumers will expect the answers to be more than just lip service: note how all the companies in all the examples featured took concrete (and costly!) steps to support their initiatives. Which aspects of your internal culture would you splash on a billboard?

BENEFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

PARENT MEGA-TREND

UBITECH

AI is about to destroy the world
make life amazing.

As long as the onslaught of technological change continues, we’ll keep shouting this mantra from the rooftops: stop viewing the world through the lens of technology, and start viewing technology through the lens of basic human needs and wants.

Put another way: all those tech trends you’re obsessed with are fine, but can you use them to deliver something people actually want?

In 2016, rising numbers of consumers will demand that brands use increasingly powerful and accessible artificial intelligence technologies to put truly smart products and services into their pockets, homes, inboxes, and more.

The underlying motivations that drive embrace of BENEFICIAL INTELLIGENCE are ancient. Save me time! Save me money! Make me a better person! Make everything easier!

But now that seemingly every big brand is trumpeting their AI efforts – Toyota announced a USD 1 billion investment in November 2015 – consumer expectation that AI should be deployed to make their lives better will rapidly increase, too. Meanwhile, even small developers are now able to leverage big AI resources. IBM’s Watson Developer Cloud lets developers access cognitive computing; it’s used by 77,000 developers globally.

Humans have limits. Their expectations do not. Maybe AI is the only hope you’ve got 😉

REAL WORLD EXAMPLES OF BENEFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

• Paribus

  Email plugin protects shoppers by automatically filing price match claims

  Raising USD 2.1 million in seed funding in October 2015, Paribus is an email plugin that automatically requests price match guarantee claims from a range of retailers. Dynamic pricing can make it hard for online shoppers to know if they’re getting the best price – Amazon makes over 80 million price changes per day – but retailers often offer price match guarantees. Paribus scans email purchase receipts from brands including Amazon, Walmart and Best Buy, and will automatically email the retailer when it detects a that a claim could be made. Paribus takes a 25% commission on savings and is on track to protect USD 100 million of purchases per year.

• Stockholmståg

  Rail algorithm anticipates train delays hours before they occur

  In September 2015, Swedish train operator Stockholmståg announced it had developed an algorithm that uses big data to anticipate train delays two hours in advance.

  The Commuter Prognosis, developed by Swedish mathematician Wilhelm Landerholm, gives warning of anticipated delays and so allows traffic control to intervene and prevent
 the ripple effects often caused by delays. Meanwhile, an app warns passengers of changes in departure times.

• Google

  Machine learning service automagically crafts email responses

  Announced in November 2015, Smart Reply is a machine learning program from Google that automatically crafts individual email responses for Gmail users. Smart Reply scans email content and suggests three responses; users simply select their preferred option and press send. Over time, the program learns the user’s response habits, and tailors future suggestions to provide more natural communication. Smart Reply was initially available in Google’s Inbox app for Android and iOS users.

• CogniToys

  Smart toy uses machine learning to ‘evolve’ with its child owner

  Raising more than four times its original Kickstarter funding target in March 2015, CogniToys are internet-connected smart toys that evolve with their child owners. Priced from USD 99, the toys use artificial intelligence driven by IBM Watson (a machine learning system made famous when it won US game show Jeopardy), to understand spoken questions and give age-appropriate answers, and can interact with stories and tell jokes. In an only mildly-dystopian fashion, over time the toy’s personality will evolve based on its interactions with its child overlord.

Next

You don’t have to be a tech giant to deliver some BENEFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (IBM’s Watson is being leveraged by CogniToys’ developers; Google, Facebook and Airbnb have recently all open sourced their machine learning libraries).

Indeed, here’s the real secret of applying this trend: you don’t even need true AI (though it is easier to leverage than ever). Rather, this trend is about serving the expectations that all of 2016’s AI hype will create. Serve those, and you’ll delight customers. That’s the real point of this, and every, consumer trend.

So if you’re low on funds, developers or time, simply ask: what are my customers trying to get done? How can I use some smart (!) digital tricks to hack a solution for them?

PERSPECTIVE SHIFTS

PARENT MEGA-TREND

PRICING PANDEMONIUM

Same price. New perspective.

In 2016, the consumer arena is a hall of mirrors that renders a dizzying and fragmented view of value. But in a hall of mirrors, perceptions can be shifted.

One way? Playfully reposition your product or service in order to offer PERSPECTIVE SHIFTS that shock customers into a radically new appreciation of the value you’re offering.

Driving this trend are the new funding mechanisms and business models, digital innovations and new perceptions of value that have rendered pricing more fluid than ever. In 2015, they only accelerated – and became more visible. For just one glimpse of that, consider the music industry. Pay for music on Jay-Z’s Tidal platform? No way! Directly fund a musician on crowdfunding site Patreon? Sure – musician Amanda Palmer is now raising USD 36,000 a month direct from fans on the site.

The result? Consumers will be more open than ever to innovations that play with – and attempt to disrupt – their thinking around value. Just make it fun!

REAL WORLD EXAMPLES OF PERSPECTIVE SHIFTS

• Greek Bailout Fund

  Londoner crowdfunds “to save Greek economy”

  June 2015 saw the launch of an attention-grabbing crowdfunding campaign to aid the Greek economy. A 29-year-old individual from the UK, Tom Feeney, started the Greek Bailout Fund on crowdfunding site Indiegogo, inviting people to contribute as little as EUR 3. While conceding that it was unlikely he’d hit his EUR 1.6 billion target, Feeney said the project aimed to give Europe’s 500 million citizens a new understanding of their combined financial power to help Greece. More than 100,000 backers pledged almost EUR 2 million; their money was refunded when the campaign ‘failed’.

• Transavia

  Budget airline turns chip and candy packets into plane tickets

  In April 2015, French budget airline Transavia reframed the value of their low-cost flights via a campaign that compared their ticket prices to casual spending decisions made in a grocery store. The airline created branded packets of chips, candy and cereal bars that doubled as tickets for a Transavia flight. The products were sold at participating Carrefour City shops, in Selecta vending machines at two Paris metro stations, and at an Mk2 cinema in Paris, and cost between EUR 30 and EUR 40. Customers who bought the products could use a code printed on the packet to secure a flight to Barcelona, Lisbon or Dublin.

• Stockpile

  Gift cards are shares in publicly traded companies

  US-based startup Stockpile produces gift cards that reframe thinking around buying or gifting shares. The startup produces gift cards available to purchase at between USD 1 and 1000, which can be redeemed for shares or a fraction of a share in NYSE-traded companies. The giftcards are available to buy in leading retail chains including Lowe’s and Kmart. In October 2015, Stockpile received a USD 15 million funding round.

• Dutch AIDS Foundation

  Charity donations triggered by buying pills for ‘first world problems’

  In July 2015, the Dutch AIDS Foundation ran a campaign that encouraged consumers to re-examine their own good fortune, and consider the good that their money can do for those less fortunate. The charity opened a pop-up store in Amsterdam selling ‘medication’ for first world problems, including Snore Like A Fairy, Ability To See Unicorns, and Flowery Farts. The First World Problem Pills are 100% drug-free peppermints, and cost EUR 4.95. All proceeds from sales were donated to the AIDS Fond charity to provide HIV medication for those in need.

Next

Sure, this is a playful trend. But it’s made possible by epic shifts in expectation when it comes to value and pricing.

How can you reframe your product or service as something else altogether in order to offer a PERSPECTIVE SHIFT on the value you bring? One starter question: if you had to pick a product that’s the opposite of yours when it comes to value positioning, what would it be?

If chip packets (casual purchase, grab quickly, ephemeral) can be airline tickets (considered purchase, carefully researched, memorable)… anything goes!

10 TRENDS FOR 2015

We know: your inbox is already full of MUST-READ predictions for 2015. And no doubt some of them were great. So you’re already well versed in the Big Changes coming. The Internet of Things (yes, more of it). More smartphones. Economic recovery (the US). Economic slowdown (China). Economic uncertainty (pretty much everywhere). Aging populations. More China. You know the drill. This list is different. First, it’s consumer trends that we’re interested in. Not the ongoing macro-trends (see above) that will form the backdrop to 2015. Second, and more important, when it comes to this list the trends aren’t really the point…

An industry secret:
Trends aren’t really the point – opportunities are.
So, time to be transparent: yes, our list does feature the Internet of Things. But in the INTERNET OF SHARING THINGS you’ll discover one exciting way to do something with these technologies, for consumers, in 2015. The same goes for each of the 10 trends below: each one highlights a key, actionable innovation opportunity that could see YOU serve, delight, surprise or build stronger relationships with your customers. Indeed, you could (and should!) start putting at least one of these into action tomorrow, if not in the weeks and months ahead! So all set? Read, be inspired, then get going!

1. INSTANT SKILLS »
All the gear, AND the idea.

2. FAST-LANING »
The end of the line for waiting in line.

3. FAIR SPLITTING »
Mobile wallets find their (shared) value.

4. INTERNET OF SHARED THINGS »
New connections. New behaviors. New opportunities.

5. BRANDED GOVERNMENT »
Time to get behind corporate-powered civic change.

6. POST-DEMOGRAPHIC CONSUMERISM »
Demographics are dead! Long live demographics!

7. CURRENCIES OF CHANGE »
Because good behavior should no longer (just) be its own reward.

8. SYMPATHETIC PRICING »
Pain point-targeting discounts.

9. ROBOLOVE »
2015: Rise of the Robots.

10. BRAND STANDS »
Get off the fence!

Fonte: Trendwatching